In this episode:
- The 95% FTP20 formula was never scientifically tested when proposed — it was a convenient shortcut to avoid a brutal 60-minute max effort test.
- Research shows most riders can only hold 95% of their 20-minute power for ~50 minutes, not 60 — and 90% is often a closer estimate of true 60-minute power.
- FTP20 is reliable (consistent, repeatable results) but not necessarily valid (accurate to real-world 60-min capability) — those are two different things.
- Practical fix: retest every 6-8 weeks under identical conditions and track the trend, not the exact number. Trust feel/heart rate over the formula when they conflict.
Free bike fit checklists, strength routines, and training tools at pedalmyway.com. PMW FIT app is free on Google Play — no account needed.
Sources & Research
- FTP20 not based on tested research — noted in “Understanding Functional Threshold Power (FTP) in Cycling,” Elevate Coaching blog, referencing that the 95%-of-20-min-power proposal was a practical estimate, not originally research-based.
- 90% vs 95% as better predictor of 60-min power / ~50 min sustainable at 95% — same Elevate Coaching piece, citing comparative research between 20-min and 60-min power values (the “(8)” reference in that article — a direct study comparing 20 vs 60-minute power output).
- FTP20 test reliability (repeatable but validity limited) — “Functional Threshold Power in Cyclists: Validity of the Concept and Physiological Responses,” Borszcz et al., and the scoping review “What is known about the FTP20 test related to cycling?” (2021) — both note high test-retest reliability but limited/variable validity against other physiological thresholds.
- General critique of FTP validity vs. reliability — “FTP vs. Critical Power” (KSE Endurance Training), citing Mackey & Horner (2021) systematic review on FTP’s good reliability but limited physiological validity compared to lactate/ventilatory thresholds.
Mukund Murali is the founder of Pedal My Way (pedalmyway.com), a cycling and fitness media brand reaching 50,000+ monthly visitors. He brings 20+ years of cycling experience spanning road, gravel, and mountain biking, with deep expertise in bike mechanics and repair. A CrossFit L1 and L2 certified trainer (2018–2023), Mukund combines strength training methodology with cycling performance to create evidence-based content for the everyday rider. He is the host of Ask The Pedalist podcast and creator of the PMW Fit workout app on Google Play.
